The World Bank has issued a stark warning, stating that poverty in Nigeria is likely to worsen by 2027 due to the country’s ongoing economic instability and its over-reliance on natural resources.
In its latest Africa Pulse report, which was released during the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings held in Washington DC, the World Bank projected that Nigeria would experience a 3.6 percentage point increase in poverty over the next five years. The report paints a grim picture of the country’s economic future, noting that although Nigeria recorded better-than-expected economic growth in late 2024—largely driven by non-oil sectors—deeper, long-term issues tied to its resource-dependent economy and persistent political instability could push more Nigerians below the poverty line.
The World Bank highlighted that resource-rich and fragile countries, such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo, are expected to experience the highest increases in poverty, with the average poverty rate in such countries reaching 46 percent by 2024. This puts Nigeria in a particularly vulnerable position, as its growth is not being accompanied by adequate poverty reduction. Conversely, non-resource-rich countries in the region have made stronger progress in reducing poverty, with factors like rising agricultural commodity prices and improved governance structures contributing to better outcomes for their populations.
Unfortunately, Nigeria's situation has been exacerbated by slowing oil revenues and weak fiscal management, which have left the country falling further behind in the effort to reduce poverty. In fact, the report noted that in 2024, Sub-Saharan Africa was home to 80 percent of the world’s extremely poor population, and Nigeria was one of only four countries housing half of this global number. This staggering statistic underlines the severity of the issue and the need for urgent intervention.
The report also called for urgent reforms in Nigeria’s fiscal policy, emphasizing the importance of stronger engagement with citizens in order to build a more inclusive and resilient economy. The World Bank warned that without significant changes to how Nigeria manages its economy and addresses its reliance on oil, the poverty situation could become even more dire by 2027.